The global air-cargo sector is preparing for two decades of gradual but meaningful expansion. The size of the freighter fleet is forecast to rise steadily as supply-chains, e-commerce and post-pandemic logistics reshape the skies. According to Cirium’s “Fleet Forecast 2025-2044”, the number of dedicated freighters is expected to increase to approximately 4,100 aircraft by 2044, up from current levels.
This corresponds to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 2.5% per year, reflecting both replacement of older aircraft and selective capacity growth.
Freight capacity (measured in available tonne-kilometres, ATKs) is projected to expand at about 3.5% annually, a slight pull-back from previous forecasts as trade flows face headwinds such as tariffs and shifting global patterns.
Within this fleet growth, the mix between new-build freighters and passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions is shifting. Cirium estimates roughly 32% of the new units will be factory-new aircraft, led by models such as the Airbus A350F and the Boeing 777‑8F.
But conversions will continue to dominate numerically, supplying nearly two-thirds of total freighter additions over the period.
Several structural trends are underpinning this projection. First, the e-commerce boom and desire for faster, more resilient supply chains are increasing demand for dedicated freighters. Second, older freighters are being retired — Cirium estimates about 68% of the current fleet will phase out over the forecast period.
Third, global trade patterns are shifting: while North America remains a major base, Asia-Pacific’s share of freighter operations is increasing as manufacturing and logistics hubs evolve.
That said, the forecast also carries significant caveats. The slower growth in capacity (3.5% vs earlier higher estimates) reflects caution over tariff impacts, macroeconomic uncertainty and potential overcapacity in some markets. The dominance of conversion aircraft raises questions about technological leaps toward sustainability, as converted jets may fall short on the latest fuel-efficiency benchmarks compared to fresh-build freighters.
In short, the air-cargo industry is preparing for steady rather than spectacular growth. Operators, lessors and manufacturers will need to balance ongoing replacement demand with the need to deploy newer, more efficient aircraft — all while navigating the evolving global trade environment.
